Discussion: The current upper level setup is something a snow lover would want to see in the winter months…a ridge over the W US and a trough over the E US. The trough should drift/swing eastward between now and Thursday with the ridge following for Friday into the weekend. Ian is expected to soon graduate from tropical storm to hurricane and make landfall somewhere in W FL next ~Thurs. Ian will miss the trough and instead get stuck under the ridge (battling high pressure). This will slow down and weaken Ian as it crawls up the east coast. The trend has been for a slower moving system. Most model guidance holds rain off for NJ until later Saturday night, possibly Sunday (Oct 1-2). With that said, Monday through at least Friday looks fantastic in New Jersey. Highs in the 60s/70s with lows in the 40s/50s with mostly clear skies. Given that NJ will be under a trough for the first half of the week, we cannot rule out an isolated shower given the lower geopotential heights. But most areas look dry. If Ian does slide perfectly up the coast towards NJ, we would likely deal with on-and-off periods of rain and a little bit of synoptic wind. The traditional wildcard with tropical remnants would be flash flooding and tornadoes in the NW quadrant of the cyclonic circulation. Coastal flooding is starting to gain my attention as high pressure to our N will likely squeeze the isobars with Ian advancing to our S—creating a strong easterly fetch off the ocean (onshore flow). With the ridge/high pressure block, we could be looking at prolonged onshore flow this coming weekend. It could cause coastal flooding problems for those facing the ocean (ECNJ/SENJ) and those along the Delaware Bay and coasts. Probably the Raritan Bay as well. I’ll be monitoring closely.
Monday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated sprinkle but most should stay dry. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts.
Tuesday (Sept 27) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.
Wednesday (Sept 28) high temperatures should max out in the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a cool feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas (lower-50s for ECNJ/SENJ coasties).
Thursday (Sept 29) high temperatures should max out in the mid-60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a cool feel. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.
Friday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s again for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a cool feel. Winds should become E/NE and could be breezy at times, especially along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts. Coastal flooding could be an issue…monitoring and will report accordingly.
An early look at the weekend indicates temps in the upper-60s/lower-70s (close to ocean temps). Currently watching what Ian does as remnants could slide up the coast and deliver rain and wind to NJ for a portion of the weekend. As of right now it looks like later in the weekend (starting Saturday night or later). I would expect at least minor coastal flooding concerns to increase when onshore flow begins/gets going.
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