Fall is Back

Discussion: A rather boring upper level look this week. Most of the drivers are at the lower levels. High pressure is currently over ~SC producing NW for NJ. As the high slides E over the next few days, it will produce W flow for Wednesday and SW flow for Thursday. This should warm temps back up into a pleasant feel, rather than cool/chilly. It’s the “get outside if you can” and “open windows if you have them” type weather. Thursday night into Friday morning we’re looking at a mostly-dry frontal passage from a cold front attached to a low in SE Canada. Can’t rule out a few spotty showers, especially for NNJ. Then Friday and Saturday are subject to an upper-level disturbance. Currently it looks weak meaning periods of light rain at the surface. No thunderstorms. No flash flooding. But I’m not sold yet. The more far-sighted longer range models see it very weak but we’re not yet within range for the near-sighted short range models to handle it correctly. It could very well be more of an overcast day rather than a wet day. I’ll have a much more confident feel around Thursday afternoon.

Tuesday (Oct 19) high temperatures are maxing in the 60s statewide and will now begin falling into a range of upper-40s to near-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Most of the state should fall well into the 50s. Conditions should remain dry and breezy keeping the cool and dry feel alive.

Wednesday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should again range from upper-40s to near-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Oct 21) high temperatures should again reach into the 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Perhaps some more humidity but likely not enough to take us from pleasant to sticky. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s from N to S with passing showers possible in NNJ.

Friday (Oct 22) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy/overcast with passing showers during daytime and overnight hours. More of a nuisance than a washout type thing. I’m honestly not feeling this. I think conditions will be much better than what model guidance is showing. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates more slightly unsettled conditions for Saturday (meh) followed by a drier Sunday. I’ll be monitoring Saturday more in the next few days to see if it changes from just a nuisance possibility. Temps should range in the low-to-mid 60s during the day and upper-30s/lower-40s at night. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC