Fall Blows Back In

Discussion: After our warmer weekend, we’re in for a transitional week. Those who saw 80s on Sunday afternoon could very well see 30s later this week overnight.  A large positive-tilted trough is establishing across the E US as a ridge sets up over the N/C US into Canada. The positive trough will bring colder temperatures to the region until Friday when the N/C US ridge moves into the E US behind the departing trough. At that point we will moderate back to something a little more seasonably average.

We’re going to see two flavors of cold and this is a typical theme when a trough moves in and out of NJ. First, the front of the trough moves through likely with any precip or storms riding the front of it and a cold front just behind the precip. The cold front moves in aggressively with the highest winds (Monday-Wednesday) but not the coldest temps of the trough. It’s usually more shocking of a cold with the wind chills adding to the sudden/recent drop in temps. But the coldest temps of a trough swing through are on the back side. That’s when winds relax overnight with clear skies and allow radiational cooling to produce the coldest nights of the trough Wednesday and Thursday nights). That’s how I see this week playing before temperatures really moderate back milder starting Friday. There remains no tropical threat to NJ as we closer approach peak nor’easter season.

Monday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a sprinkle or two earlier in the day. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ locations with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the upper-30s.

Tuesday (Oct 15) high temperatures should only reach into the 50s for most NJ locations. Extreme SNJ/SENJ might reach near-60. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should downgrade from breezy-to-gusty to just breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-to-upper 30s to near-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts (most NJ locations in 40s).

Wednesday (Oct 16) high temperatures should only reach into the 50s for everyone. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should upgrade back to breezy-to-gusty but this time out of the NW as an even colder air mass moves into the region. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. I suppose a non-zero chance of a freeze is possible for the highest NNJ elevations. But if not, well down into the 30s up there.

Thursday (Oct 17) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should relax but remain out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 19-20) indicates dry conditions with afternoon highs near-70 and overnight lows in the 40-50 range. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™