Discussion: High pressure was overhead today (Wednesday) and will continue pushing out to sea by tomorrow night (Thursday). We’ll stay dry in this period before a hot and humid Friday into Saturday, in the warm sector leading into a frontal boundary. Saturday looks like a very slow frontal boundary passage day. In other words we’ll have lifting all day Saturday capable of producing showers and thunderstorms at any time between sunny periods. Not an all day washout but certainly nuisance for outdoor interests. I recommend keeping an eye to the sky/radar. Given the slower movement of the front, showers and storms could bleed into some of Sunday morning. But by Sunday afternoon, we should have significant improvement with drier NW winds behind the front. This should allow dry conditions for the rest of Sunday and through Monday (July 4). Just sun and friendly clouds on the 4th on a generally warm day.
Thursday (June 30) high temperatures should reach or slightly exceed 90 for many locations. Immediate coast probably hung in the mid-80s. Humidity won’t be too bad just yet but the day will feel warm/hot. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range.
Friday (July 1) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s with heat indices likely exceeding 100. Immediate coastal areas should reach at least 85 with 90 not off the table. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. In this scenario, you can never rule out a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 for most.
Saturday (July 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with periods of sun, clouds, showers, and thunderstorms…on-and-off. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range from elevations to coasts.
Sunday (July 3) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas. Morning leftover showers and thunderstorms are possible, but improvement is expected from late-morning and forward. Humidity should decrease with light NW winds. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas.
Monday (July 4) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Areas away from the ocean could reach 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and friendly clouds. Humidity should start low and increase a bit by sundown. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas.
An early look at next week indicates humidity working back in for Tuesday with a potential stormy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After that it looks like more high pressure goodness heading into next weekend. I’ll check back in a few days but otherwise have a great holiday weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™