Discussion: Today will offer a small break in temperature but not so much humidity. This is associated with the tip of a narrow progressive trough swinging through the NE US. After that it’s back to upper-level ridging under (to the S of) the upper-jet. The Bermuda high has been parked and cranking S/SW flow over the OBX/Delmarva/NJ region for some time now. This is why we’ve seen such relentless humidity with little-to-no relief. So once the trough moves out the Bermuda high will quickly assume control again for Saturday and Sunday. Both days look like great summer days with no rain anticipated. Sunday looks to feature a slightly higher fluctuation of humidity than Saturday but both days should be sticky. This should spill over into Monday and hopefully end Tuesday night with a strongly-modeled cold front coming in from the N/NW. It will all come down to the front-side anticyclonic flow of the approaching high. This is currently modeled to shove dew points in the 50s over all of NJ for Wednesday with dew points then holding in the 60s for Thursday into next weekend. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised if this coming Tuesday was a stormy night.
Tropics Discussion: Tropical Storm Gonzalo should enter the SE Caribbean (over the Lesser Antilles) and is expected to fizzle to a tropical depression by early next week. Tropical Storm Hanna is in the Gulf of Mexico and heading W towards the S coast of Texas. Hanna should make landfall as a tropical storm this Saturday PM and fizzle out over Mexico. Neither Gonzalo nor Hanna present a tropical threat to NJ.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Friday (July 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should start out mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms around. Most action should clear by early afternoon with improving conditions for late-afternoon and into this evening. Winds should be very light generally out of the E, maybe a little more out of the N away from the ocean. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 from elevations to sea.
Saturday (July 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s with a humid feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.
Sunday (July 26) high temperatures should reach near-90 with a humid feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to sea.
An early look at next week indicates the humid feel hanging around Monday into Tuesday. Currently a rainy/stormy cold front is expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning that would KO the humidity for Wednesday-forward with a slow build in temps and humidity by end of next weekend. Let’s revisit in a few days.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC