Discussion: Current rain is associated with an unorganized area of frontal precipitation stemming ultimately from Tropical Storm Eta departing the coastal SE US area. This should all move out by noon, at the latest, on Friday with high pressure establishing over Ohio and tracking over NJ into the Atlantic Ocean. We’ll see colder conditions on the front side of that high via N flow, tranquil conditions under, and milder conditions once the high is offshore via return flow. With that said, Friday into Saturday looks colder and Sunday looks milder (but not as mild as recent) which should last as long as the southerly return flow has influence (through about Tuesday). This weekend does look dry though once the Friday AM showers taper off and move offshore. The coldest shot of next week should occur from Tuesday night into Wednesday as a stronger high dives into the interior E US.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Friday (Nov 13) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most areas. SENJ coastal regions could possibly just break 60. Skies could start cloudy with scattered rain in the AM but should improve for late-morning/early-afternoon and forward. Winds should make their way around to light our of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to near-40 from elevations to sea.
Saturday (Nov 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.
Sunday (Nov 15) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but scattered afternoon showers cannot be ruled out. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea with more pockets of scattered showers likely.
An early look at next week indicates a few showers Sunday overnight into Monday and then a few showers around on Friday. Cooler conditions should follow these expected rainy periods but a cold shot is expected for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Let’s take another look on Sunday.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™