Dreamy Fall Weather

Discussion: Today was obviously a sunnier and much drier day than the last few. Some of the immediate coastal regions could hang in the low-to-mid 40s overnight tonight (Thursday night). Most of the rest of NJ, however, should dip into the 30s by sunrise tomorrow morning (Friday). NNJ elevations have a shot at dipping below freezing. This weekend’s weather pattern will surround high pressure to our N, low pressure offshore to our SE, and the onshore squeeze-gradient between pushing into ENJ. The high should track from the lakes through Maine and the low should get pinned beneath the high out in the ocean. For New Jersey this means winds transitioning from NE to E/SE as the pieces move through. Those along the ocean-facing coasts will likely see breezy conditions while those away from the ocean see only light-to-breezy winds. Skies should be dry until Sunday night. Between Sunday night and Monday night, unsettled conditions should move through but not a total trick-or-treating washout. The models have backed off on Halloween being a washout and now suggest more of a cloudy with showers around scenario. I’ll be watching over the weekend to see if the rain backs even more off. I know a lit of trick-or-treaters are paying attention to this. The rest of next week then looks good as a weak area of high pressure tracks through NJ. In general November is looking above-average in temperature at least for the first half of the month. It might be mid-November before a stronger cold front comes through and takes most below-freezing for the first time.

Friday (Oct 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s for most, maybe lower-60s for warmer SNJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE (felt more so along immediate ocean-facing coasts). Overnight lows should drop into the 20s/30s for most areas away from the ocean. Marine influence could keep the ocean-facing coasts in the 40s.

Saturday (Oct 29) high temperatures should reach the lower-60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain out of the NE but calmer than Friday’s winds. Only the immediate coasts should remain a little breezy. Overnight lows should again vary wildly from elevations to coasts (near-30 to near-50).  

Sunday (Oct 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should transition from sunny, to partly cloudy, to most cloudy from AM to PM hours. Winds should be light out of the E for most, a little breezier for ocean-facing coasts. Overnight lows should stay at 50 or above as periods of rain develop and push in off the ocean.

This weekend in a sentence: Gorgeous fall conditions (dry and mostly clear) should dominate New Jersey Friday through Sunday afternoon before clouds and rain move in for Sunday night into Monday.

An early look at next week indicates clouds and rain for Monday with temps pinned in the 60s. As of right now Halloween doesn’t look like a washout however scattered rain showers could be around. The rest of next week looks nice with clear skies, highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™