Discussing Wednesday Snow

Discussion: Not much to talk about for this weekend. High temps today are ranging from mid-40s to lower-50s from N to S. Tomorrow, a few degrees colder but dry like today. A mixed bag of sun and clouds throughout. Perfect conditions for outdoor needs (end of fall cleanup/holiday decorations/etc.). We can thank an area of high pressure drifting through for this.

On Monday, winds should pick up out of the S/SW with milder conditions (high pressure return flow). Sun and clouds in the warm sector ahead of a strong cold front passage Monday PM into Tuesday AM. Behind this front will be another area of high pressure pushing cold through NJ with front-side anti-cyclonic flow. How far this flow pushes the boundary S and E will set up a general track for the Wednesday low. Snow lovers in New Jersey want to see this as far S and E as possible.

The Wednesday low is not a powerful synoptic system and will likely produce a weaker snow/rain event. It’s a flat wave-like system which will again, track right along the pushed-down boundary behind the cold front. It’s a thread the needle system within a crappy pattern (lack of blocking, tight +AO near pole, etc.) but the models are starting to warm up to it in the mid-range forecasting period. A hat tip to Bobby Martrich of EPAWA Weather Consulting for identifying this signal back on Nov 5 via extrapolated MJO analysis and a few other techniques he keeps locked up. We’ve been tracking the signal since (in MPM premium forum) and will likely have to start issuing snow maps for it as early as this coming Sunday but no later than Monday.

The I-95/NJTP general axis will likely define the snow/rain line for this system. Areas SE of I-95 might start snowier but have a good chance of going over to rain before possibly ending as snow again. With that said, areas along and SE of I-95/NTJP are probably looking at little-to-no accumulation when all is said and done (regardless of initial snow and ending flurries). Areas NW of I-95 have the best chance to see an all-snow event. Again, it’s a weaker wave-like system so I doubt anyone would escape the 3-6 inch range in NWNJ. Maybe for the highest Sussex elevations. But certainly a 2-4 inch event is doable here and again, primarily NW of I-95/NJTP.

Is there room for the general snow/rain line to trend warmer or colder? Sure, we’re 4 days away and you know how it goes. It will all depend on how far the boundary sags S and E on Tuesday behind Monday night’s cold front. But I like how this signal is transitioning from “just monitoring” to “it’s almost snow/rain map time.” The signal appears to be coming into fruition.

In English: The rest of this weekend should continue dry and slightly mild for this time of year (still chilly) with a few friendly clouds around from time to time. Monday then looks milder and breezy with clouds increasing. Monday night should feature a period of rain ahead of a cold front. The cold front will chill NJ down Tuesday for possible snow on Wednesday. As of right now, NWNJ is favored for snow and SENJ is favored for rain. A battleground between likely near I-95/NJTP from SWNJ up through NENJ. We have some time to track and adjust accordingly but we’re almost to a go here. You’ll probably see daily articles heading into the event from hereon. I’ll start to look at specific Wednesday timing tomorrow. Everyone have a great rest of your weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™