Model guidance is picking up on a potential coastal storm early next week. Right now, the timing looks like Monday-Tuesday but there is a lot of room for that shift a day earlier or later between now and then. The current pattern has been passing multiple high pressure systems by to our north (from west to east)—around the latitude of the general US-Canadian border. These highs have consistently been modeled strong (1040mb+) in the mid-range but then weaken to less than 1030mb during verification. That, IMO, will have the biggest impact on this system. If the high is stronger, the storm will be colder and vice versa if the high is weaker. Regardless, I think we’re looking at some strong E/NE winds off the ocean with beach erosion and possible tidal flooding once the high stacks on top of the low. This is the overnight Canadian model showing 850mb pressure and precipitation early next Tuesday. The European model agrees with a similar idea:
Notice the tight isobars just above the low and below the high. That would create the strong wind situation. Luckily the low is not modeled super-strong. Gale force winds would be possible if the Canadian and European models are correct this far out. As far as snow goes, it all depends on how strong that high is to the north and the path of the coastal low. That will determine the final snow-rain line setup. Right now that snow-rain line is modeled to fall along the interior/Appalachian Mountains.
In English: A coastal storm could bring rain and wind off the ocean early next week. As currently modeled, snow would only fall far inland (PA/NY State). It would be too warm for most of New Jersey. There’s a lot of wiggle room for model trends between now and then but I’ll be monitoring this possibility very closely in the next few days. Be safe! JC
All weather model graphics used with permission from WeatherBell Analytics
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™