Here’s our final call for Thursday…
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Red Dashed Area: Snow may continue to fall for a longer period, but may have a difficult time accumulating once surface temperatures climb slightly above freezing Thursday morning, aside from colder non-paved surfaces.
Disco: Low pressure is currently tracking just to the N of the Great Lakes. It will transfer to the coast and bomb out for coastal New England. Much of immediate coastal New England is expecting lower accumulations due to onshore flow influence. Interior New England however, especially the Catskills through VT, should expect a nice winter storm from this. Only the elevations of NWNJ have a chance for accumulations Jersey-wise. The lower 2/3 of New Jersey will battle a warmer surface due to SE flow off the 40+ degree ocean. The mid-levels of the troposphere however are cold enough to support snowfall down into the Newark Basin. Therefore we could have a lot of snow falling for NNJ and maybe even parts of CNJ but not sticking. I doubt non-accumulating snowfall would come SE of the I-95 corridor though. Those along 95 and SE from there should expect a cold rain. Again, the NWNJ elevations have the best chance for light accumulations from this event.
In English: Light accumulations of snow are expected tomorrow for the elevations of NWNJ. The rest of New Jersey will likely be too warm for stickage. Most of the lower 2/3 of New Jersey should expect a cold rain. The above map illustrates our final call heading into tomorrow. Precip starts in the morning and wraps up by evening followed by gusty NW winds overnight into Friday. Be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™