Discussion: There’s nothing much to talk about in the upper levels. Just some zonal W flow for most of the week. The primary drivers of NJ’s weather pattern will be two areas of high pressure. They will both originate from Canada and therefore bring cooler temps and lower humidity to the region. The first will float over the Great Lakes and then directly over NJ between Monday and Wednesday. This should produce some amazing feeling days during peak sunlight and then downright chilly nights (Monday and Tuesday night). I imagine the need for heat will exist for much of the state away from the ocean. Wednesday into Thursday looks like the period between highs where humidity will increase some and possibly some rain. The second area of high pressure should arrive Friday and track over NJ/to the N of NJ through the weekend. This high should hold Sally’s remnants to the S of NJ…more over the SE US and allow stellar conditions to build for Saturday and Sunday. Friday looks slightly unsettled so cannot rule out a few showers. But most of Sally should miss to NJ’s S. The rest of the Atlantic tropics remain lit but most systems should sleep with the fish and steer clear of NJ. You’ll be the first to know if that changes in any way.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (Sept 14) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas, perhaps only mid-70s for NWNJ elevations. Skies should transition from cloudy with a few showers in the morning to sunny and pleasant by afternoon. This includes a drop in humidity after a soggy early AM start. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 for most of the state away from the ocean. That’s right…the coolest night we’ve had in a long time. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas could hang in the 60s from marine influence.
Tuesday (Sept 15) high temperatures should only reach near-70. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant low humidity feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Another noticeably cooler night.
Wednesday (Sept 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea.
Thursday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with increased cloud coverage through PM hours. Humidity will be slightly higher than Mon-Wed but not disgusting. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea as periods of rain become likely.
Friday (Sept 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be light out of the NE, perhaps breezier along the ocean-facing coasts. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from NNJ to SNJ. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions however could hang closer to 60 from marine influence.
An early look at the weekend indicates great conditions as of now. Comfortable (cool for some) temperatures, low humidity, and clear skies. I’m following the extremely active Atlantic tropics but no threats for NJ as of now despite possibly unfortunate outcomes for other parts of the US. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™