Cooler and Unsettled

Discussion: The upper-jet has dipped S of NJ and might stay this way until about Saturday night. This will keep NJ in an area of lower geopotential heights until the jet returns northward by Sunday. We’ll have a more organized low building offshore (on the front of the trough) between now and Wednesday but a windy coast is likely the only thing we’ll see from it. The lower heights however mean that isolated showers, even tstorms, are possible here and there, especially during afternoon-evening hours. The week has an overall unsettled look to it but likely means just more clouds than sun with rainfall being very anti-climactic statewide. The weekend looks like more of the same…no widespread significant rainfall but pop-ups here and there during PM hours. Hurricane season remains quite despite the start of peak season. A few waves have/are coming off the Cape Verde region but are encountering shear and other inhibiting forces preventing them from reaching the Caribbean with organization. Will continue to casually monitor. I would expect it to heat up more as we close out Aug and start Sept.

Monday (Aug 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with an unsettled feel. Skies should be mixed (more sun to N and more clouds to S) with a few showers around, esp SNJ. Not a widespread rain though. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (Aug 16) high temperatures should reach the lower-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few more passing showers around. Not a widespread rain. Winds should be light out of the NE, perhaps breezing along ECNJ/SENJ immediate coast. Overnight lows should again range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. N/NE winds should vary from WNJ (lighter) to ENJ (breezy even gusty at times – esp along coast). Overnight lows should again range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.  

Thursday (Aug 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated shower. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts as some higher humidity trickles in.

Friday (Aug 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas with a more humid feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s with humidity sticking around (no pun). Only rain would be from iso showers/storms on either Sat or Sun night. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™