Discussion: I’ve seen happier outlooks for the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US before. 250mb and 500mb analysis indicates the upper-jet staying over or S of NJ with prolonged upper-level troughing as far as I can comfortably see. This means below-average temperatures and generally unsettled conditions (decent amount of clouds and spring showers). Before anyone gets too bent, below-average for May is not THAT cold. The sun angle is approaching its highest of the year so climatologically we’re talking highs in the mid-to-upper 50s/lower 60s. While not pipe-bursting/dangerously cold, it’s still nuisance conditions for those wanting comfortable outdoor condition activity. And overnight temperatures will likely drop into the 30s many nights but not likely below freezing. If you can hang in there, the sun angle and climatology will not let the last third of May stay this way. By then we’ll have to warm up to at least highs well into the 60s for everyone…even in a trough pattern. The transient milder snaps, like this weekend, are not far away.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey.
Monday (May 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A few passing isolated showers are possible especially during afternoon/evening hours. But overall another comfortable/nice day. Winds should be light out of the W/NW, perhaps a little breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (May 5) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (May 6) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be very light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (May 7) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds and passing rain showers. Winds should again be very light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.
Friday (May 8) high temperatures should again reach near-60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more passing rain showers possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40.
An early look at the weekend indicates the coldest part of the cold pattern we’re in. We’re talking highs in the mid-to-upper 50s, lows in the 30s, mostly cloudy skies and unsettled. If you’ve every seen Groundhog Day (1993), “It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be gray, and it’s going to last you the rest of your life.” LOL okay not the rest of your life but in these current times it might feel like it. The light at the end of the tunnel is sustainable warmth for the last-third of May including the Memorial Day Weekend period. We just need to make it past this prolonged below-average period of temperatures. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC