Discussion: A piece of upper-level energy has broken off of the NW US trough and made its way across S Canada to the trough currently swinging through the NE US. This energy is meeting up with the southern stream energy but too late for any type of phasing enhancement. It’s actually the very back tip of the trough swinging through but the upper-level disturbance was far back enough to bring us the raw crappy weather we saw today. The trough should then swing out into the Atlantic Ocean by Saturday and place NJ on the front side of yet another ridge. In the lower-levels high pressure should track from the Great Lakes over NY State and down into the Atlantic Ocean with a ~Cape Cod departure location. Anti-cyclonic winds around the tracking high should correlate with the general surface wind directions for NJ (N flow Friday, E flow Saturday, S flow Sunday). Therefore the weekend transitions from cold and windy out of the N (Friday-Saturday AM) to comfortably mild by Sunday evening. The milder (not hot) conditions should spill over into Monday before a rain-bringing cold front resets the cooler pattern Tuesday-forward. Another dry week expected after the Monday night cold front. No tropical threats currently exist for NJ in the near future. Not even a synoptic rain system. We need as much rain as possible from today and Monday PM to help combat the developing drought.
Friday (Oct 4) high temperatures should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a dry feel. Winds should be breezy, occasionally gusty, out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should vary by region. Near-freezing for NNJ elevations and possibly some areas of the SNJ Pine Barrens. Otherwise upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ in general.
Who’s coming to LBI Chowderfest this weekend?
Saturday (Oct 5) high temperatures should range from near-60 to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ. This comes after a cold morning start. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should vary drastically. Upper-30s/lower-40s for NNJ elevations. Upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ in general.
Sunday (Oct 6) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S for most areas perhaps breezier along the SNJ coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates Monday being the mildest day of the week with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s possible. This will be the temporary reload/moderation I mentioned in the October 2019 WeatherTrends360 Outlook. Another cold front should then bring rain Monday PM and drop us back to reality for Tuesday AM-forward. We’re talking about highs in the mid-to-upper 60s for most of NJ maybe some lower-70s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Other than the Monday PM rain though the rest of the week looks dry. Let’s see how all of this looks in a few days. Have a great weekend and be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™