Discussion: A strong zonal upper-level jet will dominate the 250mb space over NJ this weekend. 500mb geopotential height anomalies will remain positive with a weak upper-level trough moving through SE Canada. There will be a strong surface low under that SE Canadian trough wrapped up into a nice mid-latitude cyclone. We’ll experience the associated warm sector of that cyclone Friday AM with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain and SW winds. Eventually the cold front should push through and produce colder conditions lasting from Friday night through Saturday. The cooler air mass should then be reinforced with the front side of high pressure from Sunday through Tuesday before we ultimately warm up later next week into the weekend. Tuesday PM would be the next period of rain to start the milder transition. So basically mild and wet Friday morning…dry and cool the rest of the weekend.
Friday (March 13) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most areas. 70+ is possible for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should start mostly cloudy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, in the morning. Improvement with sun is expected by late-morning/early-afternoon and forward. Winds should be breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (March 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (March 15) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should remain mixed with mostly sun and a few clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates cooler conditions bleeding over into Monday-Tuesday followed by a gradual warm-up Wednesday into next weekend. I’m not seeing any major weather systems but nuisance rain showers are possible here and there. It is now the bottom of the 9th in the ongoing baseball winter analogy. We have 3 outs between now and the end of this month. Unfortunately it looks like peak-career Mariano Rivera is on the mound closing. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™