Discussion: Today’s AM rainfall was a doozy. An upper level low is moving through the E US which enhanced a surface area of low pressure just off the coast of NJ. This created areas of rotation associated with the overall mesoscale convective vortex. It created an easterly fetch along the boundary which moved from S to N as a warm front. Given the high-saturation levels of the atmosphere from recent prolonged Bermuda High-pumped south flow, the PWAT values were high in correlation. This is why the rainfall rates were out of control (locally). The triggering lift from the low simply wrung out the moisture. Tuesday looks unsettled but Wednesday and Thursday offer some improvement before unsettled conditions return for Friday. Unfortunately despite improving conditions (sun-wise), the humidity should remain elevated. The weekend will likely be unsettled again (what a shock </sarcasrm>) but I am counting down the days until a possible cold front passage mid-next week. That should finally bring relief after this extended period of tropical feel.
Tuesday (Aug 14) high temperatures should range from low-to-mid 80s across New Jersey. Skies should be partly cloudy and humid with the chance of more rainfall and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the W/SW (unless under a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (Aug 15) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most. 90+ is possible for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Humidity should still be present but at slightly lower levels (likely not enough to feel significant relief). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should stay near-70 along the coast but possibly dip into the mid-60s away from the ocean.
Thursday (Aug 16) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s again for most. 90+ is possible for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should remain light out of the W. Overnight lows should stay near-70 along the coast but possibly dip into the mid-60s away from the ocean.
Friday (Aug 17) high temperatures should again break 90 in many locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions and NNJ elevations have the best chance to hang in the 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows might struggle to dip below 75 along the coast. Interior areas could dip into the 60s.
An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled, warm and humid conditions persisting. I’m still targeting a cold from mid-next week that should finally lower dew points to a comfortable level of humidity. Until then we’re just going to have to endure. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™