Conditions to Improve

Discussion: That was some weekend. Henri’s primary winds missed NJ and instead hit coastal New England before moving through CT into NY State. New Jersey never saw the destructive winds. The surprise was rainfall amounts. I thought for sure that at least a few inches of rainfall was possible in the hardest areas of rainfall in NENJ and ECNJ. But I didn’t see 5-6 inches plus happening. The reason this did happen is the interaction and lifting between Henri and the upper low. In the future whenever an upper low is involved like this, a wildcard of busting rain totals should certainly be emphasized as a possibility. This creates an atmosphere of plasticity where the slightest pressure drop can wring liquid moisture out of the environment (if there’s more interaction). Each of these systems teach lessons. Lesson learned for the future.

For this week, the upper-jet will remain well to the N of NJ until early next week. That will keep NJ in a warm and humid general air mass all week. This coincides with positive geopotential height anomalies (ridging). At the surface it means we finally get a break from remnant rain after today but the humidity sticks around. It will become quite warm/hot this week especially Wednesday-Thursday. Temps into 90s and high dew points indicating excessive humidity and all the safety hazards associated (dehydration, heat stroke, etc.). Please stay as hydrated and cool as your situation can allow for. Our next signal of relief (lower temps and humidity) is this weekend. High pressure is modeled to dive out of Canada into the Atlantic Ocean (to the NW of NJ). This would provide E flow and then SE flow for Saturday and Sunday off an ocean in the 70s. After that a stronger and more traditional cold front (from the NW) is modeled for mid next week.

Monday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should remain humid and mixed with mostly clouds (some showers around) and some sunny breaks. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most.

Tuesday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be sunny but still humid. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could break 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. Coastal regions might hang in the mid-80s. Skies should start sunny but transition to clouds with a humid feel. Cannot rule out PM showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should remain humid and mixed with sun and clouds. More PM showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs ranging from upper-70s to upper-80s from elevations to coasts. Slightly unsettled meaning showers and thunderstorm pop-ups not all day events. Might be an onshore flow weekend if the high positions right. Let’s revisit this in a few days. Thanks and have a great week. Please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™