Discussion: This week should start on the chilly side but moderate by the weekend. Departing high pressure over SE Canada, specifically its return flow, is to blame for the extended marine cold shot. As that high moves away towards Europe another high pressure center should establish further S off the east coast. This will bring in warmer southerly return flow but not without cloudy skies and eventually some rain. A weak low pressure wave will also pass to our NW which should sustain the warmer temperatures via warm sector flow. There should be a period of on-and-off rain that spans from Wednesday through Saturday morning. Hopefully we can narrow that window down as we closer approach but for now, that’s the largest window of possible rainy impact. And again, it will not be continuous rain. There should be lulls and breaks that could last hours at a time. Once that clears out the weekend then looks pretty good.
Monday (Mar 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE (breezier along the coast). Overnight lows should range from low-20s to low-30s NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (Mar 27) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.
Wednesday (Mar 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. Watch for some parts of CNJ/SNJ to possibly spike into the 55-60 range. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a small chance of rain showers. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.
Thursday (Mar 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most. SENJ might struggle to escape the 50s via marine influence while interior CNJ/SNJ possibly takes a run at 70. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain showers possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s for most.
Friday (Mar 30) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. This is probably the best chance to break 70 away from the ocean prior to the cold front passage. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with more rain possible. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.
An early look at the weekend indicates clouds and rain possibly spilling over into Saturday morning. Sunday currently looks sunny, mild and beautiful but with any luck, Saturday will clear out quicker and end up the same way for at least the second half of the day. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™