Conditions Improve and Warm…Finally!

Discussion: That was some crap weather this past weekend. Hopefully Sunday worked out for as many possible but wow at Friday-Saturday. There will be two noticeable themes this week. One is a gradual warming from Monday into the weekend. The other is prolonged onshore flow. The warming will be associated with increasing geopotential heights from the developing ridge in the N Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US. The sun angle is getting mighty high and will warm most areas away from the ocean above 70 this week. Immediate coastal regions however are subject to the Rex Block pressure squeeze out of the E…the reason for the expected persistent and prolonged onshore flow. Get used to marine air mass this week. You might see pelicans and terns fly by. This should hold immediate coastal areas in the 60s for daytime max temperatures but prevent overnight lows from dipping below the lower-50s. So while we experience the warmer temps, high sun, and onshore flow this Monday-Friday, the recent departing system is expected to boomerang in track. First it should dive southward (just W of Bermuda), then westward back into the GA area by Friday. Then back up over NJ as scattered weakening remnants this weekend. It will not be as bad as this past weekend though. 60s and 70s with scattered showers/t-storms not 48 in the middle of the day with widespread rain. At this point it looks more nuisance than washout type stuff but I’ll monitor this week.

Monday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 70 in some interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Immediate coastal areas however will likely hang in the 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should range from breezy (20mph gusts) to gusty (40mph gusts) out of the NE from NWNJ elevations to SENJ coasts. Surf should be rough and tidal levels should remain elevated. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas.

Tuesday (May 10) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas likely closer to 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain breezy (20mph gusts) to gusty (40mph gusts) out of the NE from NWNJ elevations to SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s as winds finally subside and relax a bit (maybe still just breezy for coastal areas).

Wednesday (May 11) high temperatures should push into the lower-70s for most areas away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas likely closer to 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NE for most (breezy for extreme coasts). Overnight lows should stay just above 50.

Thursday (May 12) high temperatures should kick up another gear. 80 is possible for interior CNJ/SNJ. Most of the rest of NJ should see 70s. Only the immediate ECNJ/SENJ should hang in the 60s from marine influence. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions should see breezier E winds. Overnight lows should hang in the low-to-mid 50s.

Friday (May 13) high temperatures should range in the 75-80 range again away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas likely hanging in the mid-60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light-to-breezy (from W to E) out of the E. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 60 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should stay closer to ocean temps (~52-54) through daybreak Saturday.

An early look at the weekend indicates more mild temperatures. 70s for most, 60s for immediate coastal areas. Unsettled though. Scattered showers/t-storms possible between clear/dry periods. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC