Conditions Improve

Discussion: The stormfront is just pushing offshore (as of Friday afternoon). Lower geopotential heights will continue to dominate, with a less hot but stormy surface pattern, until around/just after the summer solstice. From now until then expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to pop anywhere at anytime, however most days will be nice at the widespread level. A very unsettled pattern. Models are indicating some ridging moving in just after the solstice which should push days into the 90s with elevated humidity next week. As far as this weekend goes, shower activity is most probable in NENJ and some of NWNJ/CNJ before noon on Saturday. This would be from upper-level instability trailing the departing low. Today’s lifting/stormfront was associated with that low which tracked very close to NJ. After any Saturday activity, that should do it for the rest of the weekend and through about Tuesday aside from a low probability isolated pop-up. Saturday and Sunday both look warm with high temps reaching near 80. The wetter pattern is looking to kick off ~Wednesday with a mild onshore event. It’s a very uncertain pattern unraveling as traditional heat and humidity will eventually take over but not before a wet transition.

Friday (June 16) high temperatures reached the 70s with a swampy feel right before the stormfront. The heavy rain brought down some cold air from aloft and many are now in the upper-50s/lower-60s. Conditions should improve for the rest of the afternoon as overnight lows fall to the 55-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (June 17) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. NNJ, maybe some of CNJ, are subject to spotty passing showers earlier in the morning. The rest of NJ should stay dry. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (June 18 – Father’s Day) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with just a micro chance of an isolated shower. It looks mostly dry. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates 80s away from the ocean, 70s along the coasts. Looks like a good start to the week with a mixed bag of warm sun with afternoon showers possible. Wednesday then might start a wet pattern lasting into the following week. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC