Northwest winds should keep the region colder and drier this weekend. Let’s break it down…
Disco: A very strong W/SW 250mb jet suggests a general progressive flow over the E US while the jet dips and kinks over the SW US. Eventually that dip will propagete eastward and kick our area into winter mode anytime after Dec 9/10. We should then see an area of lower 500mb heights coincide with this and establish a longwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US in that same time period (Dec 9/10-forward). Until then, the progressive flow aloft should keep us relatively colder at the surface than what we’ve gotten used to in closing out November. While no snow storms are expected in the short-term, you can never rule out lake effect flurries given the NW flow over the still-very warm Great Lakes. There exists enough contrast between lake-surface temperature and mid-level temperature to generate decent instability which powers the lake effect squalls. NWNJ would have a much better chance at this than SENJ given proximity to the lakes with PA and NY State in an even more advantageous spot for such. For us, we’re probably just looking at a clear, colder and drier weekend.
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Friday (Dec 2) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s. Parts of SNJ, especially SENJ, have the best chance. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Wind chill factors should be in play. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 20s.
Saturday (Dec 3) high temperatures should again struggle to escape the 40s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Wind chill factors should be in play. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 20s.
Sunday (Dec 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s statewide. This should likely be the colder day of the weekend. Parts of NNJ might fail to escape the 30s for high temperatures (we’ll see). Skies should start partly sunny and gradually increase in cloud coverage heading into evening hours. Winds should relax and subside out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s and 30s statewide. Any overnight precipitation will have to be watched on radar observations for wintry types. NWNJ would have the best chance for such.
An early look at next week indicates a possible southwest flow event (rain for most but snow possible to the NE of a stalled warm front). I’ll be keeping an eye on that through this weekend. We’re then going to take a hard kick into winter by the end of the week. Regardless of snow vs rain for a possible low pressure disturbance towards the end of the week, this system will usher in our first Arctic air mass which would be a completely different animal than the transient cold shots we’ve seen. There’s too much to watch to say it all in this paragraph. I’ll have periodic updates out as we approach closer. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™