Discussion: A quick note about tonight (Sunday night). High pressure is set up just to our W providing N flow. The flow should subside heading into overnight hours. The combination of lighter winds and clear skies could allow for radiational cooling to bust temperatures lower than expected. It’s likely not pipe-busting stuff but certainly a threat to sensitive late-season agriculture. Monday should remain chilly. Beyond that, the high pressure should slide into the Atlantic. A weak low should scoop in just to our N and moderate temperatures for Tuesday. Once the cold front from said low moves through, high pressure should reinforce another cold shot for Wednesday-Friday. The synoptic storm signal is still there for rain and wind in the October 27-30 period. We’ll have to watch any onshore flow component from such as it could lead to coastal flooding. You’ll likely see some storm-specific articles about this system this week as the data consolidates on a more certain solution.
Monday (Oct 22) high temperatures should range from low-to-mid 50s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (Oct 23) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ t0 SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, at times out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping just below 30.
Thursday (Oct 25) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s for most. Only extreme SNJ should get close to 50. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.
Friday (Oct 26) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most. Skies should be partly-sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range drastically from mid-20s for NNJ elevations to mid-40s along the SNJ coast (most NJ areas in the 30s).
An early look at the weekend indicates another chilly-but-dry Friday. Saturday should start mostly cloudy with precipitation and wind likely starting during Saturday PM hours. Rain and wind could persist through most of Sunday with gusty winds out of the W to end the weekend/start next week. Wind direction would start out of the E on Saturday and rock to the N on Sunday before ending out of the W Sunday night. Might as well call it a possible nor’easter. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™