Colder Week Expected (Jan 11-15)

We’re looking colder with a light snow chance mid-week and tremendous uncertainty for the weekend.  Let’s break it down.

Monday (Jan 11) high temperatures should range from about 30 for NNJ elevations to upper-30s along the SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be 15-20mph out of the W with gusts to 35mph. Expect decent wind chills. Overnight lows should drop into single-digits for NNJ elevations and teens/lower-20s for the rest of New Jersey.

Tuesday (Jan 12) high temperatures should range from 30s for NNJ elevations to 40s for the rest of New Jersey for afternoon high temperatures. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with increasing coverage heading into sunset. A clipper will be moving in (see following clipper discussion). Winds should be gusty out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and teens/lower-20s for the rest of New Jersey.

Clipper Discussion: Because we will be in the warmer sector of the clipper before it hits, surface temperatures should climb above freezing during the day Tuesday, especially during peak sun angle. The mid-to-upper levels will still be very cold. Once the sun sets, surface temperatures should crash below freezing as the clipper arrives. Timing is favoring Tuesday PM hours over Wednesday AM hours for any light snow that falls. Although it will be nice to see conversational snow, the bigger story will likely be the brutal wind chills to follow the system into Wednesday AM. We have an Arctic front attached that will be ushered through by the clipper and high pressure to our W/SW. So to sum it up in a phrase…light snow Tuesday evening followed by heavy cold and wind Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (Jan 13) high temperatures should struggle to get above freezing for the entire state. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W which will set up a decent wind chill factor again. Overnight lows should fall into single-digits for NNJ elevations and teens/lower-20s for the rest of New Jersey.

Thursday (Jan 14) high temperatures should struggle to get above freezing for NNJ elevations but could reach 40 along the SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for most of New Jersey. Perhaps the SENJ coast could level off around freezing/slightly above-freezing overnight.

Friday (Jan 15) high temperatures should make it into the 40s statewide. Skies should feature both early sun and increasing cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 20s in NNJ elevations to about 40 along the SENJ coast.

An early look at the weekend indicates tremendous potential for a synoptic storm system to occur Sunday into Monday. Saturday should be similar to Friday. It’s way too early for details but the overall pattern still looks favorable to support a winter storm. It will be timing and track that will ultimately determine rain vs ice vs snow. I stand by my plan to see the clipper through Wednesday AM before investing any emotion into the late weekend potential. A track to our NW would place us in another rainy warm sector. A track to our SE would place us in a significant to major snow storm. A Miller-B transfer scenario would likely mean rain to snow. Regardless, there will likely be a storm system to track. With that said, let’s revisit the weekend on Wednesday AM.

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I’ll have a detailed article out later this evening about the approaching clipper. As far as the late-weekend potential goes, I’ll have something of detail out on Wednesday. Guidance between now and then should begin locking onto a solution. Have a great week and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC