Colder Transition Expected (Nov 6-10)

Discussion: The upper levels should gradually transition from positive 500mb height anomalies to negative between now and Wednesday. NNJ elevations (mostly NWNJ) has the chance to see their first frozen precipitation of the year Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. I wouldn’t get too excited however given seasonal climatology and the marginal temperature profile. Therefore any NWNJ snowflakes should be conversational at best, with little-to-no accumulation anticipated. The rest of NJ will likely see cold rain for this period. 500mb height anomalies should then drop even further between Thursday and Saturday as a shallow but strong trough swings through. This will be a very noticeable shift colder but temperatures should moderate some for Sunday as 500mb heights build behind the departing trough.

Monday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most, maybe near-70 along the SNJ coast. I expect this to be the last milder day for a while. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for many with only the immediate coast hanging in the 40s.

Tuesday (Nov 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should start partly sunny but precipitation could move in during PM hours. NWNJ could see their first snowflakes of the season overnight but little-to-no accumulation is expected. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows could dip below freezing in NNJ elevations. Much of the state should fall into the 30s with immediate coastal areas again hanging in the 40s.

Wednesday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide. Areas of SNJ could push to mid-50s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with remnant AM rain showers possible. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with immediate coastal areas likely hanging in the 40s.

Thursday (Nov 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny with a few isolated rain showers possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy (breezier along coast) out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.

Friday (Nov 10) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s for most. NNJ elevations might even struggle to escape the 30s for highs. Skies should be mostly sunny with a cold and dry feel. Winds should be breezy, even gusty, out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and well into the 20s for mostly everyone else. Immediate coastal areas could hang near-freezing.

An early look at the weekend indicates another cold and dry day on Saturday (similar to Friday). Sunday should moderate some with highs back to the 50s and cloudier skies.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC