Colder Patten Sets In

Discussion: It looks like the roller coaster temperature swings will calm down now that we’re settled into a colder air mass and colder pattern overall. Temperatures should fall steadily through sunset into tonight (Monday night) sending most below freezing. We’ll moderate a little on Tuesday (highs into 50s in some spots) ahead of the disturbance we’re tracking for Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. It looks like a cold rain for most of New Jersey with NWNJ elevations possibly seeing some snow mix in during colder overnight hours. I had a feeling this would happen this week (see last paragraph of discussion) and still think it is possible. Would be challenging, but not impossible, for anything to stick given the marginal surface temperature profile. Trace-to-light accums at most for areas above 1000 feet of elevation. A much better chance of NWNJ just seeing the first snowflakes of the season. Once the rain clears out by Wednesday morning, all of New Jersey will become colder again with clear conditions into the weekend. Can’t rule out some lake effect flurries or snow showers as cold NW winds blow over the still-mostly liquid Great Lakes. That would be in the Wednesday-Thursday period behind the departing low. There are some pretty solid cold shots expected between now and Thanksgiving. Initial long-term analysis indicates conditions then moderating the day before Thanksgiving but let’s not get to far ahead of ourselves. For now, we’re colder for the foreseeable future with a Tuesday night disturbance to track. Saturday looks like the coldest day of the pattern with some moderation Sunday…both weekend days dry and clear.

Monday (Nov 14) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-to-upper 40s. Some locations might flirt with 50 but it’s still a much colder feel given the low humidity and NW winds. Skies will remain clear into overnight hours as most locations dip into the 20s. Teens are not out of the question for NWNJ elevations and immediate coastal areas might hang just above 30.  

Tuesday (Nov 15) high temperatures should reach the lower 40s for elevations. The lower part of NJ should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s. Clouds should increase throughout the day and ultimately rain should move in by late-afternoon. Most of NJ should see a breezy cold rain. The higher elevations of NWNJ (likely 1000 feet+) could see trace/light accumulations. We’ll have a snow map out tomorrow for such, but the wintry aspect of the event is much more so for PA elevations, NY State, etc. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to lower-40s from elevations to coasts as precipitation continues.

Wednesday (Nov 16) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts. Skies should start cloudy and rainy with improvement by afternoon and forward. We should see the sun before sunset. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to coasts (down into the 30s for most).

Thursday (Nov 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 20-32 from elevations to coasts (down into the 20s for most).

An early look at the weekend indicates mostly dry conditions. Saturday looks the coldest with afternoon high temperatures possibly staying below 40 for most. That would allow Saturday night to drop into the teens/20s. Sunday a little milder but not much with highs still capped in the 40s.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC