Discussion: The upper jet will be dipping S of NJ from tonight through about Thursday morning. This will allow below average 500mb geopotential height anomalies to build over NJ in said period. At the surface this means a much colder setup than what we’ve recently experienced in the first half of November. The initial colder flow out of the NW or W/NW will be strongest wind-wise Monday morning but gradually subside by Tuesday. However, once the cold air advection relaxes, light winds and clear skies should allow radiational cooling to produce the coldest temperatures of the week on Wednesday night. On Thursday we’ll still be under NW flow aloft but we should moderate back to milder temperatures for Friday into the weekend as heights rebuild with another ridge. The main takeaway is that we should see the coldest air of this season yet between Monday AM and Thursday AM which should also be the longest period of colder conditions yet. The upper jet pattern is still very zonal however without adequate blocking over Greenland to hold it in. Otherwise these colder snaps would linger around longer—and not roller coaster so much back to periods of milder moderation. Call it a roulette table player’s hunch but these patterns tend to change every 1-2 months. Therefore, we could be looking at a wild start to the winter weather season once we get into December. As we approach winter, it sort of feels different, doesn’t it…almost like the fall before winter 2009-2010. We’ll see.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (Nov 16) high temperatures should struggle to break 50 in many areas. Some of the warmer SNJ locations might reach the mid-50s but that’s about it. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be their strongest (gusts to 30mph) out of the W/NW during AM hours but subside through PM hours. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to lower-40s from elevations to sea.
Tuesday (Nov 17) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to mid-30s from elevations to sea.
Wednesday (Nov 18) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s for most areas. NWNJ elevations might not get out of the 30s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should bottom out for the week with teens possible for NWNJ elevations and likely 20s for the rest of the state. A cold start for Thursday morning.
Thursday (Nov 19) high temperatures, after a cold morning start, should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.
Friday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. You might see warmer areas of SNJ break 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.
An early look at the weekend indicates slightly above-average temperatures with dry, but possibly cloudy, skies. Highs in the mid-to-upper 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s type stuff. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™