Colder Conditions Moderate (Feb 14-16)

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough is currently swinging through the region and should give way to the front side of a ridge with upper-level NW flow. This is responsible for bringing the colder conditions that started last night (Thursday) and should last through early Sunday morning. Sunday should then return to milder conditions as the upper-level flow returns to SW on the back-side of the ridge. Another forward-leaning trough should return by mid-week next week and bring another cold shot to the region but not as cold as this current shot. At the surface this weekend through early next week looks dry. We might see a rainy frontal passage Tuesday evening to usher back in the cold. There’s a weak winter signal ~Feb 20 that’s popping on and off of guidance but given the progressive pattern with lack of blocking and true Arctic air I wouldn’t get excited about it. The overall polar and Pacific patterns remain unfavorable for Mid-Atlantic US snow.

Friday (Feb 14) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 20s for NNJ and 30s for CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny for most areas. There might be passing flurries and snow showers with the cold but little-to-no accumulation expected. Winds should be breezy out of the NW (wind chill factor in effect). Overnight lows should range from single-digits to teens NNJ to SNJ as winds subside.

Saturday (Feb 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-most sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Feb 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should start mostly cloudy but give way to more sun by afternoon. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions continuing through Tuesday with another transient cold shot returning by mid-week but likely not as cold as today/tonight into tomorrow (Friday-Saturday). It looks like a rainy cold front could accompany that transition Tuesday PM. There are currently no snowstorms on the horizon but a few weak signals in the ~Feb 20 period. I’ll report if it gains traction otherwise the snow-lover disappointment should continue. Let’s see how everything looks on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™