Colder but Not Brutally Cold

Discussion: Not much has changed. We still have a raging jet off the Pacific into the W US which is keeping the Arctic cold, to the N, from dropping down and influencing the lower-48. Therefore, we’re stuck with air mass ranging from mild to stale-cold at best. This is an unfavorable pattern for winter snowstorm development however it doesn’t mean that it can’t snow. We might see some snow this Sunday night into Monday morning from a weak wave in a marginal temperature environment. If the coastal storm signals of Jan 11 and Jan 13-15 come into fruition, then we could be looking at something bigger. But all these events will be working with progressive flow (in-and-out) and marginal temperature environments (some areas near or just above 32). The longer-range models are continuing to kick the “winter will return” can down the road. It now looks like we could stay in the general milder pattern through at least Jan 20, aside from the few thread-the-needle chances mentioned. It’s a horrible pattern for the snow lover. It’s wonderful for those who hate snow and/or like to save money on heating utilities. It is what it is.  You won’t see me doing anything but casually monitoring the thread-the-needle possibilities. No hype. Low expectations for snow. But it can happen for the optimists out there. I’ll probably discuss the Sunday night into Monday night weak wave a little more tomorrow.

Friday (Jan 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas, maybe lower-50s for extreme SENJ. Skies should start cloudy with some showers around but should improve from afternoon into evening hours. Clouds might linger but rain should cease. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-30s for most areas.

Saturday (Jan 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-20s for most, closer to 30 near the coasts.

Sunday (Jan 8) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds during the day. A mix of snow/rain showers could move in before midnight and fall through most of Monday morning. It looks like anything from a coating to an inch or two are possible but will likely struggle to stick to roads give the marginal temperature setup, especially SE of I-95. Might whiten up the trees and natural surfaces though.

An early look at next week indicates high temperatures in the upper-30s/lower-40s with overnight lows down to the 20-30 range. There are a few storm signals, after the Sunday night-Monday morning wave. One is Wednesday Jan 11 and the other is the weekend of Jan 13-15. Both are coastal storm signals that will have to thread the needle to take advantage of what little cold is available. It’s worth monitoring and tracking from this range, but it’s not worth getting excited about anything or preparing yet. It looks like the overall milder pattern could last further into January. It might be the last week of January before a more sustained and prolonged wintry pattern returns for more than a few days at a time. For now, I will track Sunday night, Jan 11, and Jan 13-15 as possibilities with low probability. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™