Discussion: The current system is pulling away to the NE. Behind it, we’re left with colder and drier W/NW flow at the surface (NW flow aloft). The temp and dew point should peel away from each other with a significantly colder and drier feel developing overnight tonight (Friday night). Saturday and Sunday look slightly on the colder side (above freezing during the day-below freezing overnight). Monday-Wednesday then looks milder as a break in the upper level troughs occur. Another trough should then form and swing through the E US. We want to see this trough as deep as possible if you’re rooting for snow. This trough will be caught between ridging near Greenland (-NAO) and ridging over the NW US (+PNA). This trough is what would form a strong storm, possibly wintry, in the Friday-Saturday period just before Christmas. My position remains the same from yesterday’s article…casually tracking the signal until Sunday. If the signal is still there Sunday (which it still is now) then it will be time for serious tracking to begin. For now, please enjoy the weekend and try not to hop on any hype/rumor trains created by surface model output. The upper levels are still where the focus should be to make sure the +PNA and -NAO hold true and produce the deep E US trough. More to come.
Friday (Dec 16) high temperatures made it to the 40-50 range (from elevations to coasts) but are now starting to fall. Skies should continue gradually improving as the storm system pulls further away. Winds are now out of the N/NW for most. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s/30s for most areas tonight including the coasts.
Saturday (Dec 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from elevations to coasts.
Sunday (Dec 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should again range from 20-30 from elevations to coasts.
An early look at next week indicates a dry and calm Monday-Wednesday with afternoon highs into the 40s and overnight lows down to the 20s/lower-30s. Then we turn colder for Thursday-Saturday as we anticipate the possible winter storm signal to possibly occur (currently would be Friday into Saturday morning). Saturday afternoon/evening and the rest of Christmas weekend then look even colder behind the storm signal once it pulls away and leaves us with NW flow. My position remains the same…casually tracking the signal until Sunday. If the signal is still there Sunday (which it still is now) then it will be time for serious tracking to begin. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™