Cold Start to the Week (Nov 13-17)

Discussion: Temperatures this week should start below-average and finish near-average heading into the weekend. Overall, upper-level height anomalies are positive through much of the US. The only area of disturbance is currently moving through our region and is expected to bring precipitation Monday morning. Let’s give it through afternoon to clear. It is possible that some of this precipitation could fall through a colder surface environment, especially in the NNJ elevations. While low amounts of precipitation are expected, watch out for potentially slippery surfaces Sunday night (tonight) into Monday morning for the northern third of the state, especially elevations above 800ft. The lower 2/3 of New Jersey should only see a cold nuisance rain event that clears by afternoon at the latest. The rest of the week appears uneventful as temperatures slowly build back to average values by Friday. Saturday could feature a wet and possibly stormy cold front that ushers in another well-below average temperature air mass for Sunday-forward. If Greenland blocking comes into fruition towards Thanksgiving as modeled then it could back up the zonal jet stream pattern we are in. It could increase the amplitude into a meridional jet stream pattern which is even more favorable for potential winter storm development. No major storm systems are showing but the overall November 18 through Thanksgiving period should still be watched.

Monday (Nov 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most. Coastal areas could reach into the lower-50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rainfall possible. AM hours are favored for such. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most, possibly the 20s away from the ocean and for NNJ elevations. Coastal regions should hang near-40.

Tuesday (Nov 14) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to lower-50s from NW to SE. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most again, possibly the 20s away from the ocean and for NNJ elevations. Coastal regions should once again hang near-40.

Wednesday (Nov 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light off the ocean. Overnight lows should range from 30s to 40s from NW to SE.

Thursday (Nov 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most and possibly even 60 for parts of SENJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the SW during the day but switch to NW overnight. Overnight lows should range from 20s to 30s from NW to SE.

Friday (Nov 17) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should be partly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s.

An early look at the weekend indicates a strong frontal passage. This would mean a temperature surge just ahead of the frontal boundary, a period of rain and possibly embedded thunderstorms, followed by a cold and dry air mass. That cold air mass looks to last longer than this past weekend did, possibly all the way through Thanksgiving. No major storm systems are showing despite a favorable upper-level pattern later this month. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™