Discussion: The next 7-10 days or so are starting to come together as a general picture of what to expect. First, a trough is departing and a ridge is approaching which means NW flow in the upper levels and a surface high approaching NJ from the W. This is why yesterday and today are so cold. As the ridge gets over NJ Saturday into Sunday, temps will begin moderating as the surface high also moves W and provides S flow. This idea should build with temperatures into about Tuesday (warmest day of the week) before temperatures then gradually decline into next weekend under zonal W flow. I’m seeing a few rain chances Sunday night into Monday (possibly C-1” of snow for NWNJ) and then Tuesday into Wednesday. Friday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting for me. At the very least, this should be the marker for when the cold air returns to NJ. Whether or not a disturbance will bring a rain-to-snow situation for NJ around Friday the 20th is still yet TBD. But the general period from Friday Dec 20 through about Dec 24 is starting to show a deep E US trough swinging through supported by a sharp W US ridge that’s supported by a deep E Pacific trough. It’s an upper level that is supportive of snowstorm development, though I would like to see the downstream Atlantic ridge closer to Greenland. Surface model output is still all over the place but the pieces exist for a pre-Christmas snowstorm if it all comes together correctly. I am going to casually monitor this weekend and will start to take seriously if still showing next week. Dec 24 is about as far as it makes sense to look out to as everything after that would be dependent on what happens Dec 20-24.
In English: It’s cold as heck right now and should stay that way into Saturday with dry skies. Friday night (tonight) looks cold with most in the teens. Gradual warming Sunday through Tuesday with Tuesday likely the warmest day of next week. Rain, possibly snow for NWNJ, is possible Sunday tonight into Monday and then again on the warmer Tuesday into Wednesday. Gradual cooling Wednesday into next weekend then I’m watching a few snowstorm chances in the Dec 20-24 period with the biggest chance Dec 21-23. I will report more accordingly next week if this is still showing. Right now, I am liking what I see heading into Christmas.
Forecast
Friday (Dec 13) high temperatures are maxing (as of 3pm) in the 30s for most NJ areas. A few SENJ coasties near or just over 40. Skies should remain mostly clear with light-to-breezy NW winds. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for a lot of NJ…a cold night. 20s for coasties.
Saturday (Dec 14) high temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than Friday…mid-to-upper 30s away from the ocean and low-to-mid 40s right along the ocean. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (Dec 15) high temperatures should reach the 40-45 range for most of NJ. NNJ elevations might hang in the upper-30s while coasties reach the highest into the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should start mostly clear but increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the E/NE, a little breezier along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 as more precipitation moves through. NWNJ elevations could be looking at a coating to an inch of wintry accumulation while the rest of NJ stays above freezing with rain likely. The further NW you are in NJ, the better chance to see wintry precip.
An early look at next week (Dec 16-20) indicates temperatures gradually building into Tuesday with Tuesday likely the warmest day of the week (50-60F). More rain is expected through Tuesday night. We then gradually step down Wednesday through Friday with more precip possible while it’s still warm…could change to snow with arrival of cold. All eyes then quickly turning to the Dec 20-23 period which includes next weekend into early next week (right before Christmas). Models are keying in on a larger synoptic storm system for this time period but a lot of uncertainty in how the surface will look…snow vs mix vs rain. It does look like something wants to happen and there should be adequate cold around. I will continue casually monitoring this weekend and will begin to take seriously next week if still showing. I can’t believe that Christmas is around the corner. Neither can I believe that we’ve had 4 Arctic fronts prior to the solstice with the chance for one more around the solstice. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Premium Services
KABOOM Club offers ad-free content, inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At two bucks per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon.
My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC