Discussion: Flurries, maybe even some snow showers are possible from now through tomorrow morning as low temperatures eventually range from teens to 20s from N to S. Anything from a trace to a coating is possible since anything that falls will stick. The high-res NAM is a little more bullish than the HRRR on it but not a big deal either way. It looks pretty good on radar right now in W PA and C PA but I do expect it to hit drier air over NJ and fizzle at least some. It looks like some flurries have already made it into NWNJ. The Tuesday-Wednesday signal does not look good for snow. The N stream rides in but the S stream is sheared out to the E over the SE US. At best, we’re looking at some snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with little to no accumulation. The models have kept the fantasy range (9-day) snow storm signal alive over the weekend. Tomorrow we’ll be 5 days out and will start to take seriously if still showing. The GFS and Euro are slightly out to sea with it while the Canadian is a massive hit for all of NJ. It would be a deep trough setup for the E US (even Florida chills down) with a Miller-A setup riding out of the Gulf of Mexico. If the models still like it consensually tomorrow, I will start daily article analysis. If they lose it, they lose it.
Monday (Jan 24) high temperatures should range from upper-20s to mid-30s from N to S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from N to S with more flurries possible.
Tuesday (Jan 25) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-teens to lower-20s from N to S with more flurries and snow showers possible.
Wednesday (Jan 26) high temperatures should fail to escape the 20s for most. NWNJ elevations might not make it out of the teens. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-zero to teens from N to S.
Thursday (Jan 27) high temperatures should range from mid-20s to near-30 from N to S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from N to S.
Friday (Jan 28) high temperatures should range from near-30 to near-40 from N to S. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from about 10 to 20 N to S as the weekend storm signal approaches.
An early look at the weekend indicates a lot of model and live observation analysis this week. There’s a potential snow storm but still a lot of wiggle room for it to slip away. More analysis to come likely daily starting tomorrow…if the signal is still there. In the meantime, please stay as warm as possible and be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™