Discussion: We currently have a colder flow out of the W/NW. Overnight lows tonight (Thursday night) should fall into the 20s for most with coastal regions hanging in the 30s. A few isolated snow flurries and streamer showers have been reported throughout the region thanks to the Great Lakes. We’ll stay under below-average geopotential height anomalies for the entire weekend which means a colder-feeling weekend. Sunday into Monday looks like the coldest point before we rebound a little under zonal heights Monday-Wednesday/Thursday. At that point another cold shot should move in from the N and set up an interesting weekend situation. Travel looks great for Wednesday-Thursday Thanksgiving interests, but Friday into Saturday is what I am watching for a strong synoptic storm signal. Next weekend should feature a pronounced trough for the E US with a strong W US ridge. A synoptic storm system will try to drop out of Canada and possibly target areas along/NW of I-95/NJTP with a winter storm. It’s a little far away but daily serious tracking will start early next week if the system is still this well-advertised on the model data/guidance.
Friday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should drop into the 20s for most areas with immediate coastal locations hanging in the lower-30s/near-freezing.
Saturday (Nov 19) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again fall into the 20s for most with coastal regions likely just above freezing.
Sunday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s/lower-40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for all even the coasts. NWNJ elevations could see upper-teens.
An early look at next week indicates temperatures more seasonably average (highs in the 40s/lower-50s) to start the week followed by another colder shot by ~Thanksgiving Day. Most of the week looks dry however a storm signal looms for later in Thanksgiving weekend (Friday into Saturday). I have a feeling we’ll be talking more about this very soon.
Premium Services
KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.
My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™