Cold and Dry for the Holidays (Dec 24-28)

Discussion: The upper levels appear flat/zonal through this week and into the weekend. At the surface high pressure should slowly float through the E US from Monday through most of Thursday. That should keep temps near-average under dry conditions. I just want to make a small note that W/NW flow over the Great Lakes could produce lake-effect flurries across PA/NY and possibly NWNJ. Again a very small chance of this and without any accumulations if they happen. Late Thursday night into much of Friday looks rainy as a low cuts well to our W over the Great Lakes. Once the precip shuts off later Friday, as rain for all of NJ, a cold front should come through and take us back to dry and cold for the weekend. I am still looking ahead to the first half of January for the next snow chances depending on what happens with the stratospheric warming event/potential Polar Vortex split. We’re still likely 2 weeks away from the E US mid-latitude tropospheric implications of such. Until then nothing major on the horizon winter storm-wise.

Monday (Dec 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should gradually decrease in cloudiness. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Dec 25) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most.

Wednesday (Dec 26) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s again for most.

Thursday (Dec 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should gradually increase in cloudiness. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ as rainfall approaches and possibly begins before midnight.

Friday (Dec 28) high temperatures should reach near-60s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rainfall likely. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most as conditions improve by Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures returning to near-average once everything clears out from the Thursday PM/Friday rain system. For now Saturday and Sunday appear dry, sunny and breezy. Let’s take another look on Thursday. Merry Christmas, have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™