Discussion: The most important and immediate up-front issue to discuss is the coastal flooding. Earlier last week you might recall me mentioning that the early part of this week could see worse coastal flooding than during the Saturday rain and wind storm. This is because the low has occluded off the jet stream and retrograded towards the 40N/70W benchmark (from the E). This stall in low track has created a large easterly fetch of wind between the benchmark and coastal New England—right towards the Jersey Shore. The next few high tides might sting a bit for areas that normally flood along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. There are 3 high tides of concern: 1-just before midnight tonight (Monday), 2-just before noon tomorrow (Tuesday), and 3-just before midnight tomorrow night. The National Weather Service has issued coastal flooding language accordingly. IMO minor coastal flooding is a lock with a solid chance for moderate/high-end moderate. I recommend extra preparations if you normally flood along the coast for the next 24-36 hours (move cars, outdoor prep, etc.). Tidal concerns should subside for Wednesday.
Otherwise, we’ve got a week of mundane weather conditions for late March. Highs in the 50s, maybe 60…lows in the 30s/40s. Light rain chances Wednesday, heavier rain chances Thursday. Expect a transient colder period behind Thursday’s departing rain and before Saturday’s daytime warmup. Friday/Friday night the coldest point of week likely…but again short-lived. Friday through the weekend looking pretty good with dry conditions in the 60s. Once we get through the clouds and rain (ending Thursday evening), we’ll turn a nice corner for the weekend.
Monday (March 25) high temperatures are hovering in the mid-40s along the coast and just over 50 for most away from the ocean. Skies should remain clear. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the NE, breezier for coasts. Coastal flooding is likely for ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to near-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Tuesday (March 26) high temperatures should hover around 50 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the NE. Coastal flooding is likely for ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to about 40 for most NJ locations.
Wednesday (March 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should feature more clouds than sun with rain showers around. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (March 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain showers around. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (March 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most NJ locations. Areas away from the ocean could take a run at 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Friday night into Saturday morning should be the coldest point of the week before warming up Saturday.
An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures into the 60s with sun and clouds. Looks dry from this range. Should feel nice after the clouds and rain this week. Once we’re through Thursday, we should turn the corner towards a nice spring weekend. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™