Discussion: Yesterday was a neat little situation across northern SNJ. A near-stationary frontal boundary was draped across the Philly/Trenton to Ocean County latitude. The lifting of this frontal boundary allowed for the creation of isolated showers and thunderstorms (small and non-severe) and then the sea breeze front provided additional sustainment lifting. It allowed the showers and rumbles to train across from W/NW to E/SE. Only miniscule precipitation though. Onto this week. I hope you like clouds, humidity, showers, and thunderstorms because that’s basically the NJ pattern Monday-Thursday. A decaying and very positive-tilted trough is spanning from the Great Lakes back down into Texas. This provides a W/SW flow towards NJ. The Bermuda high is well established which is providing a SE flow towards NJ. NJ, and most of the NE US and Mid-Atlantic US is caught between in a zone of convergence with the quasi-stationary boundary inching N and S from today through Thursday. This means lots of clouds, humidity, and chances for showers and thunderstorms for the next 4 days. By Thursday night, what’s left of the decaying trough will push through NJ and push the stationary boundary to the SE of NJ. There will likely be a stormfront associated with this for Thursday night which should mark the finale of isolated-to-scattered storms possible Today through Thursday. A ridge then moves in behind it with high pressure at the surface. As the high moves through the region towards and into the ocean, we’ll see another great weekend of weather. Very similar to this past weekend: Comfortable feel Friday. Slightly warmer/stickier Saturday. Warmest and most humid Sunday. But most of the weekend rain-free and sunny outside of isolated pop-ups (low chance with sinking high pressure air mass).
Monday (July 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas likely 75-80. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible favoring PM hours. A humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most of NJ.
Tuesday (July 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations, even the coast. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with a humid feel. More showers and thunderstorms are possible favoring early AM and later PM hours. A break is anticipated during the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 again statewide.
Wednesday (July 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should remain mixed with more clouds than sun and with a humid feel. More showers and thunderstorms are possible with PM hours favored over AM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should again fall to a few degrees on either side of 70.
Thursday (July 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. PM thunderstorms could be strong/severe. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as conditions improve and clear by Friday morning.
Friday (July 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations but with a less humid feel. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as light/dry NW flow persists. That should feel nice after the humid Mon-Thurs.
An early look at the weekend (July 27-28) indicates a mirrored idea to this most recent past weekend: Friday the driest and most comfortable (low-to-mid 80s). Saturday slightly warmer and slightly more humid (mid-to-upper 80s). Sunday the warmest and most humid of the weekend (some spots reaching or just exceeding 90). A mostly sunny weekend with the caveat of isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours (most locations staying dry). Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™