Discussion: I wanted to wait until today’s model suite completed regarding the developing hurricane situation in the Gulf of Mexico. What’s currently classified by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will soon be named Helene. Right now, just a developing system E of Jamaica in the NW Caribbean Sea. By Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM, it should be a Tropical Storm becoming a hurricane while crossing into the Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. After that, the system will head towards the general coastal envelope between New Orleans and Tampa. Today’s guidance likes the Florida panhandle area for landfall Thursday but there is room for drastic changes given the upper-level setup. When this system nears the coast, it will interact with an upper low coming in from the N over Missouri/Arkansas. The flow of the US upper low should then throw it up the east coast where it will encounter a wall of high pressure/ridging. This would then seriously weaken any remnants of the system for New Jersey. So, currently, no direct threat to New Jersey. But citizens along the NE Gulf Coast should start paying attention to the National Weather Service and local authorities for guidance. This one is going to spawn up, cross the Gulf from S to N, and make landfall in just the next ~72 hours. As of right now, it is yet TBD whether or not the system will reach major hurricane status (cat 3 or greater) before landfall in the NE Gulf of Mexico. But by the time it reaches New Jersey, it could be all but a fart in the wind.
For New Jersey this week, we’re looking at a cloudy and unsettled period. Onshore flow has persisted for some time now. It has buffered New Jersey with comfortable temperatures but has also frustrated ECNJ/SENJ/SNJ coastal communities with tidal flooding. The flooding should gradually subside after today (Monday) and especially by mid-week. A loosely organized disturbance should then bring rain between Tuesday night and Thursday. The way this year has gone, it’s hard to get behind the possibility for significant rainfall. But the forecast is for at least on-and-off periods of rainfall in that window with building humidity. Might even see a t-storm on Wednesday given the dynamics. By Friday, the high pressure/ridge that will stop the tropical system from making it up to NJ, will take hold of New Jersey’s weather pattern. Humidity should drop and skies should improve, mostly. We might see this as early as Thursday night but definitely by Friday. The weekend then looks dry but we could see more onshore flow with the high to our N…meaning more possible clouds and AM fog for those near the ocean.
Monday (Sept 23) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a cool and comfortable feel. A few showers around but nothing major. Winds should be light out of the E/NE, breezier along ocean-facing coasts. The persistent onshore flow will keep rip current and coastal flooding interests alive, especially during high tides regarding water in the streets. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range for most NJ locations.
Tuesday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mostly cloudy. Winds should remain light-to-breezy off the ocean with more rip current and coastal flooding concerns along beaches and coastal communities though not as much concern as Monday. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as expected rainfall approaches.
Wednesday (Sept 25) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE, breeziest along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from 60-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with more areas of rainfall passing through.
Thursday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers around and a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as rainfall tapers off region-wide.
Friday (Sept 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations with a much more comfortable feel humidity-wise for at least NNJ/CNJ. Humidity might hang a bit for SNJ/SENJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds, improving throughout the day. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range for most NJ locations.
An early look at the weekend (Sept 28-29) indicates afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Saturday looks like a mix of sun and clouds with Sunday a little cloudier. Let’s see how it looks when we are closer to the weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™