Clear but Cold (March 5-7)

Discussion: The backside of a trough over the NE US will feed our area with colder NW flow at the upper levels from now (Thursday) through most of the weekend until a narrow positive-axis trough swings through between Sunday and Monday. Most of this period looks dry aside from any nuisance showers or flurries that could squeeze out with no accumulation. So dry, mostly sunny, but nuisance colder conditions for the weekend. It looks like Monday will be the last day of it after Sunday night likely being the coldest point of the air mass over NJ. Tuesday through the rest of next week should then fall under established ridging in the upper-levels which means a more expansive troposphere and warmer surface. Much of NJ should be able to reach into the 50s and 60s during the day Tuesday into next weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stronger W/SW flow bust some areas into the 70s, mainly closer to 95. We’ll see. Immediate coastal areas are still subject to ocean temps in the 40s however so expect cooler temps in those areas (extreme ECNJ and SNJ/SENJ). But away from the ocean should be pretty nice. I’ve got the 8) on standby.

No wintry storm signals showing as far as I can see (through about the ides of March). We’re in the top of the 9^th inning of snow season now. Sun angle and general climatology will become more inhibitive each day into March for snow stickage. It can happen but it’s rare.

Friday (March 5) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most and likely the teens for the colder NNJ elevations.   

Saturday (March 6) high temperatures should be capped in the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from NNJ to SNJ.    

Sunday (March 7) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for colder elevations, 20s for most of NJ, closer to 30 near immediate SENJ coast.

An early look at next week indicates Monday being the last colder day of this cold weekend air mass. Tuesday through the rest of next week then looks like highs in the 50s and 60s with mostly clear/dry conditions. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™