Clear and Sunny but Colder

Discussion: There’s not much to discuss until we approach the more favorable cold/snow pattern later this month. Today (Thursday) was mild but tomorrow will feel different. A slug of pecip should push through NJ overnight tonight from W/NW to E/SE between about 11pm tonight (Thursday night) and 5am tomorrow (Friday) morning. This precip will be just ahead of the cold front expected to pass through later in the daytime Friday. Temps should then fall through sunset Friday evening (from 40s to 20s) and usher in a colder air mass than the last few days. It won’t be Arctic cold or considered “cold cold” but below freezing overnight. The Friday early AM precip will mostly likely fall as a cold rain onto a near-40 degree surface. It might be cold enough aloft to force sleet or flakes but the surface layer will be too warm. The more practical concern would be any surface moisture not evaporated by sunset Friday evening. The winds should help dry roads but puddles and/or wet sidewalks, etc. will freeze. Saturday and Sunday then look clear and mostly sunny with temps into the 40s. The only caveat is that we’ll have stiff N/NW flow making is seem like highs are only in the 30s. So clear and sunny but with a cold feel, especially overnight. This theme then continues until mid-next week. Then we should moderate milder Thursday into next weekend. And then the week after that starts the more favorable pattern for snowstorm development. Sun angle concerns will just be starting mainly for mid-afternoon snowfall. Climatological average highs will be approaching mid-to-upper 40s. But if all the ingredients came together for a snowstorm in such a pattern (Phase 8 MJO, -EPA, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, etc.), it would render such concerns obsolete. See President’s Day Weekend 2003 for reference. If the ingredients don’t come together then the pattern will be wasted, and we’ll likely finish this winter with most/all NJ areas below-average snowfall. Typically these patterns feature smaller events that introduce and exit the pattern with a larger event between. We are still way too far from looking at any surface output. Pattern analysis only. And as of right now, the pattern continues to scream snowstorm development between Feb 13/14 and a few weeks after.

Real quick for today (Feb 1): Some of us are just touching 50 for an afternoon high. Parts of SNJ saw some sun for a change while most of NNJ remained under cloud cover. Clouds should now fill in and increase ahead of overnight showers. Precipitation should move in around or just after 11pm, predominantly as rain but could mix into a wintry type into Friday morning, especially towards the tail-end of it. Precip should wrap up by 5am tomorrow (Friday) morning. Even though it might be cold enough aloft for sleet or snow, no accumulations are expected with a near-40 degree surface. The cold front won’t be here yet.

Friday (Feb 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations by afternoon but then drop-off with sunset into overnight hours. Any rain or mixed precip showers should end by sunrise without surface accumulation. Skies should feature more clouds than sun. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW which should evaporate most moisture from the roads. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s statewide. Not bitter/Arctic cold, but certainly cold enough to freeze any leftover puddles/moisture from early Friday morning precipitation. Icy spots possible.

Saturday (Feb 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the N/NW which should make it feel colder. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Feb 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain clear for another mostly sunny day. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates the colder/drier pattern (highs in the 40s lows in the 20s) lasting until about Wednesday (Feb 7). Then we’re looking at a warmup from Feb 8 until about the 13^th or 14^th when the colder and snowier pattern is still expected to develop and settle in for a prolonged duration through at least the rest of February.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC