A powerful low pressure disturbance will form and move into the Great Lakes region this week. Models generally have the synoptic disturbance in the 965mb-980mb range of intensity which will eventually help change the entire pattern over the US. For now it means rain and wind for New Jersey and most of the east coast to start the week. The overall theme will be warmer rain through Christmas Eve followed by dry, windy and cooler conditions from Christmas Day forward. Let’s look at each day:
Monday should range in the upper 30s and mid 40s from NWNJ to SENJ. Expect on and off periods of light rain with overcast skies. Winds should be light out of the east. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.
Tuesday will be noticeably warmer with highs into the 40s and 50s. Periods of light rain are possible with mostly overcast skies. Overnight lows should only drop a few degrees as rain lasts into Wednesday.
Wednesday (Christmas Eve) should be the warmest day of the week with highs into the 50s and 60s. Periods of light to moderate rain are possible with mild-to-moderate SE winds. Overnight might remain close to their daytime temperatures if the rain lasts into Thursday morning. It could end earlier Wednesday evening.
Thursday (Christmas Day) will reach into the 40s and possibly low 50s as the low pressure disturbance departs to the N/NE. Clouds should give way to sun with 10-20mph winds out of the west (gusts to 25mph). Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 30s statewide.
Friday looks like a mostly sunny day with highs in the 40s and 50s. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should drop back into the 30s.
Model confidence is low beyond the short-to-mid term during the ongoing pattern change.
This Monday-Friday Outlook is proudly sponsored by weathertrends360 (www.weathertrends360.com). Through 150 years of world wide weather data analysis, weathertrends360 has developed proprietary algorithms and methods that predict weather up to a year with 84% accuracy. They are second to none in the long range so check them out for business planning, travel planning, etc.
Be safe and have a great week! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™