Christmas Weather Outlook

Discussion: First and foremost, a Merry Christmas from our family to yours. If you celebrate something else, then happy that! And if you celebrate nothing at all, then I hope you had a great solstice and kick-off to winter. I probably won’t post again until Tuesday as we are tied up in family gatherings, etc. After this post, I plan to focus on the prime rib I’m on the hook for. I dry aged and dry brined a USDA Prime cut of rib roast. I just made a fresh herbal rub with Kelly’s Irish Gold Butter and about to start the horseradish sauce and au jus. I’ll be cooking the roast on a rotisserie this evening and I have high hopes for it. With that said, let’s cover the weather expectations through Monday.

It was a shame to see such a favorable pattern for winter storm development go to waste. We had the Greenland block, a +PNA ridge, and a historic trough and storm system. But because the +PNA ridge was offshore of the W US instead of just onshore over the W US, it forced a downstream correlation of the low being too far W and allowing the SE Atlantic ridge to warm the Mid-Atlantic US. This is what brought temperatures in the 50-57 degree range (the warm sector) into New Jersey initially and during the majority of the storm system. The cold that filled in behind the low and cold front wasn’t/isn’t just any stale Canadian cold air mass. This was a small lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) – the coldest air on the planet – that made its way into the continental US from Siberia via cross polar flow. The Arctic high dropped into Montana at 1050mb+ and the low bombed down to sub-980mb just E/NE of the Great Lakes. These clockwise and counter-clockwise features pulled the TPV air mass down together into the majority of the US (at least the E 2/3 of the US). The low meandered mostly in place while the high tracked southward towards Texas and then eastward towards the SE. This allowed the TPV air mass to drop and bend around to the E towards New Jersey. This is the air mass we are under right now. After tonight, this air mass will gradually start to moderate through about Tuesday/Wednesday. Then a ridge is expected to build for the E US and flip us to the above-average realm of temperatures for New Years weekend and the immediate following period. A coastal blurp of energy will likely pass between NJ and Bermuda around Dec 27-28 but should remain SE of NJ. Other than that, I am not seeing any wintry storm signals until probably the second week of January.

Saturday (Dec 24) high temperatures are pretty much at their maximum right now. Most of NJ has made it back up into the teens but some elevations are still in single digits. Regardless, all high temperatures for NJ today will stay far below freezing. Skies are mostly sunny and winds have subsided from gusty to just breezy out of the W. Winds should continue to relax tonight which could allow overnight low temperatures to bust low via dynamic cooling. Basically, due to clear skies and lighter winds, you might see overnight low temperatures a few degrees lower than what your apps are saying. Models suggest lows ranging from 13-23 from elevations to coasts. Will probably be more like 8-18 or even lower – but without the brutal gusty wind chills.

Sunday (Dec 25) high temperatures should max in the 20s for most areas. Immediate coastal areas could push into the lower-30s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall back into the teens for most with coastal areas possibly hanging just above 20.

Monday (Dec 26) high temperatures should reach near-30 for most areas. Should feel mild after the weekend conditions. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures moderating back into the 40s for highs Tuesday-Thursday, then 50s possibly 60 for New Years weekend with some rain possible Jan 1-2. The milder pattern should then stick around through at least the first week of January. The second week of January would be the earliest I would look for a wintry signal to return. For the snow lover, this sucks and will likely feel like forever. But at least we can rest our heating energy that is currently running almost 24/7 to keep us warm. Once again, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, or Happy Winter Solstice depending on what you celebrate. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™