Christmas Outlook (Dec 23-27)

Discussion: I’m not trying to start a religious or holiday war. I celebrate the tradition of Christmas and so do many who follow Weather NJ. However I understand that some/many of you celebrate different traditions and holidays some not at all. If that is you then I wish you the equivalent of the best tradition and holiday wishes/emotions possible, in whatever way you celebrate it, as we close out 2019.

The upper-level 250mb jet should stay to the N of New Jersey for the rest of this week. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should correlate with well above-average values through December 30, 2019. At the surface this means mild above-average conditions for this time of year. This Thursday night into Friday morning is the only precipitation I am seeing from now through most of Sunday. Speaking of…areas NW of I-95/NJTP, especially NWNJ elevations, could see some snow and sleet mix in before everything wraps up Friday morning. Friday, Saturday and most of Sunday then look dry with rain possibly moving in by Sunday night. Therefore most of the immediate holiday period this week should be free from weather disruption and actually present good travel conditions. Not the worst thing for highways and airports. Next week we turn back to a colder pattern and begin tracking some storm signals showing just after the New Year period. There are a few (Jan 3, 5, and 8) and the upper-level pattern looks to return to an active one capable of supporting wintry weather.

Monday (Dec 23) high temperatures are reaching into the 50s for most places. SWNJ/SNJ a little cooler in the 40s due to Delaware Bay influence. Skies are mostly sunny, a few clouds here and there. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas.

Tuesday (Dec 24 – Christmas Eve) high temperatures should reach into the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Dec 25 – Christmas Day) high temperatures should range from near-40 to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Dec 26) high temperatures should range from near-40 to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start out mostly sunny but gradually increase in cloud coverage into evening hours. Rain showers are possible during evening/overnight hours with colder areas (NWNJ – NW of NJTP) possibly mixing in some snow/sleet especially elevations. As of right now no accumulations are expected but I’ll update accordingly if needed. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Dec 27) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start mostly cloudy and gradually clear by evening. A few AM showers might be around. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates relatively mild conditions with highs ranging from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ and overnight lows staying above freezing statewide. Some rain possible for Sunday PM. We then return to a colder pattern for New Years week and begin tracking a few winter storm signals in the first week of the New Year. Until then conditions should remain benign and great for holiday travel this week and weekend. Everyone have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™