Chilly but Dry Weekend Expected (Dec 19-21)

Temperatures should be seasonal if not slightly below average this weekend. Weak but high pressure will have control of the entire region. As far as next week goes, there’s tremendous uncertainty of storm track(s) and precipitation types with a common theme that below-average temperatures will be arriving behind whatever Christmas storm forms and passes through the mid-atlantic/northeast US. Let’s look at each day of this weekend first:

Friday highs should range from the mid-30s (NWNJ) to lower 40s (SENJ) with a mixed bag of sun and fair weather clouds. Winds should be 5-10mph out of the NW with gusts to 20mph. Overnight lows should then fall into the 20s statewide.

Saturday should fail to break 40 with the exception of extreme coastal/SENJ. Skies will again feature a mixed bag of sun and fair weather clouds. Winds will be light out of the NE—maybe a bit stronger along the coast. Overnight lows should again drop into the 20s statewide.

Sunday will continue the weekend trend with highs in the 30s (NWNJ) and 40s (SENJ). Once more there should be a mixed bag of sun and fair weather clouds. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE before overnight lows fall just below freezing statewide. Let’s just leave a micro chance of a passing flurry or snow shower on the table from the storm that will be missing us to the south.

An early peek at the beginning of next week indicates some possible light rain showers before we really need to sit forward and pay attention. A tremendous amount of uncertainty surrounds The Christmas Eve-Day period with powerful low pressure disturbances being sprayed anywhere from the Great Lakes to the coast. The Euro (and other guidance that temporarily caught on) busted hard for this weekend’s potential when it was in the 120-168 hour range. My interpretation of all this (poor weekend model performance + spray of storms for next week) means a pattern change to a colder and wintry one. Regardless of storms vs no storms, the models all bring Arctic cold to the region starting as early as Christmas Day. How long it sticks around is yet to be determined. Let’s see how the new pattern settles in behind whatever is going to happen on Christmas Eve…I’ll be tracking! Be safe and have a great weekend! JC

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Image Credit: Going through the motions by Greg Molyneux Photography 

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC