Jonathan Carr
17:00, 23.Sep 2018
Discussion: Upper-level 500mb heights will build into a ridge over the Northeast US this week. This should bring swampy south flow at the surface to New Jersey, especially as a small piece of remnant tropical energy feeds into the flow
Jonathan Carr
13:59, 20.Sep 2018
Discussion: Upper-level ridging, currently over the E US, should be flattened by a shallow upper-level Canadian disturbance this weekend. At the surface this should produce a warm and humid Friday running into the first part of Saturday. By Saturday evening,
Jonathan Carr
18:30, 16.Sep 2018
Discussion: Florence has been nearly stationary under the ridge all weekend with no escape path until now. Finally the jet stream will pick up Florence’s remnants and take them over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US between Monday and Tuesday. For
Jonathan Carr
17:49, 13.Sep 2018
Discussion: Hurricane Florence is stuck directly under the ridge now as it crawls into coastal NC. A slow-to-depart upper-level low to the SW of Florence resulted in some weakening yesterday. That and a failed Eye Wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC). For
Jonathan Carr
16:45, 11.Sep 2018
Discussion: I’ve seen enough to remove the landfall potential for New Jersey and likely even Delmarva. I’m 90%-plus confident that landfall will occur between the SC/NC border and Cape Lookout, NC (the track indicated in the above cover image). I
Jonathan Carr
20:27, 10.Sep 2018
Discussion: Major Hurricane Florence is packing 140mph sustained winds with a central pressure below 940mb now. This category 4 hurricane is currently located at 25.4N 61.1W and moving W/NW at 13mph per the National Hurricane Center. Little shear and warm
Jonathan Carr
17:14, 9.Sep 2018
Discussion: Per the latest 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Florence is now located at ~24.4N 57W and moving W at 7mph. Flight recon shows a central pressure of 975mb and sustained winds of 85mph. The hopeful escape to
Jonathan Carr
16:27, 8.Sep 2018
Discussion: Florence is now located at ~25N 55W (~700 miles SE of Bermuda) and moving very slowly to the W. It is still a strong tropical storm but expected to re-intensify into a hurricane as early as overnight tonight but
Jonathan Carr
21:49, 6.Sep 2018
Discussion: Florence, currently located at 25N 49.6W, has taken a substantial beating from the wind shear mentioned in last night’s article. There’s a chance it might even dip down to Tropical Storm status overnight into tomorrow. Unfortunately this is not
Jonathan Carr
21:28, 5.Sep 2018
Discussion: Major Hurricane Florence is currently located at 23N 47W. It’s packing sustained winds of 130mph and is tracking towards the general Bermuda region. Florence’s first hurdle, when we last discussed, were cooler sea surface temperatures W/SW of the Cape
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