Discussion: We currently have high pressure (anti-cyclonic flow) to our W and low pressure (cyclonic flow) to our E. This is producing a tight N to S pressure gradient (strong N/NW flow) and tapping Arctic air mass over Canada. For
Discussion: A shot of Arctic air will move in from the NW starting tonight and will linger until Sunday. This should keep most, if not all, of NJ below freezing during this period. NNJ elevations and maybe Pine Barrens down
Discussion: Tonight should start a prolonged colder pattern for NJ. Nothing record breaking, just colder. It should already feel colder today than the warm sector air mass we saw earlier this weekend. This week should behave like a V graph
Discussion: The most important feature of our current forecast is the disrupted Pacific jet plowing into the W US. We’re going to see a -EPO/-PNA setup start to take shape. This will allow ridging to occur near Alaska and extreme
Discussion: The Tuesday-Wednesday storm signal has vanished to the S just like the signal last Friday. Strong consensus in the 5-8 day range. Fell apart at 5 day and in mark. Seems to be the theme which indicates the models
Discussion: So that everyone is on the same page, an extremely favorable pattern supportive of winter storm development can come and go without any snowstorms actually hitting NJ. These lyrics probably belong in an Alanis Morissette song or something, but
Discussion: This morning’s 6Z NAM run was about as close as the Jan 8-9 (tomorrow-Saturday) storm signal has been modeled over the past few days (see below image). The more recent 12Z model suite has re-affirmed a miss to the
Discussion: We have two immediate synoptic signals to track. One is for this Friday-Saturday (Jan 8-9) and the other is for next Tuesday (Jan 12). There’s another Jan 15 but let’s deal with the first two that are now inside
Discussion: We’re just about through the lull after this morning’s precip burst. The upper-level shortwave will now interact with the surface low off the coast and fill back in precipitation. You can already see it happening in EPA. The final
Discussion: After today’s milder conditions, all NJ temperatures should crash overnight tonight. We’re probably looking at a range of 20s to 30s from elevations to sea come 5-6am Sunday morning. The back-side of the departing low’s northerly cyclonic flow will
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