Discussion: Models are gaining confidence on the idea of the W US trough weakening and tracking E through the Great Lakes/New England regions between Wednesday and Saturday. This would create an environment for a weak and flat surface low to
Discussion: The upper level jet will stay to the N of NJ for most of this week with the Mid-Atlantic US under positive 500mb height anomalies. That’s a recipe for above-average temperatures and we’ll stay mild through Wednesday. I hope
Discussion: A shallow trough will pass through the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this weekend. An associated surface low will track through SE Canada and extend a cold front southward into the US. This could front should pass through NJ Saturday
Discussion: Ok all small human beings need to listen up. Thursday into Friday could be a rough night wind-wise. Let’s break it down into phases: Phase I: The Warm Sector Rip – NJ will be in the warm sector for
Discussion: Most are down into the single digits and teens already tonight. High pressure is moving through and clear skies/lighter winds will allow radiational cooling to do it’s thing. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be slightly milder than Monday but
Discussion: Today was the last of the warmer afternoon-spiking days. A cold front will pass through overnight which will drop temperatures below freezing for many heading into the light snow event. The data has trended a bit for the approaching
Discussion: This system has been beaten to death for almost 7 days now. While appearing much stronger at times on long-range model guidance, it remains modeled very weak and light over the past few days. The cyclonic vorticity never evolved
Discussion: We can’t write this late-weekend system off because it’s still bringing at least light snow to much of the state on most model guidance. The image above is a 6-hour shot of precip representing the furthest NW the system
Discussion: Model data has been persistent on a ~Valentine’s Day winter storm signal since this past Saturday, Feb 5. The signal has ghosted in and out of day 5-9 long-range model guidance but here we are today 4 days out
Discussion: After the cold we’ve gotten used to over the 4-5 weeks, this week should feel like beach weather. Especially Friday-Saturday. We first have a weak coastal disturbance passing by today (Monday) through tomorrow (Tuesday). This should bring a cold
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