Forecast Discussion: There seems to be a lot of interest in the rain this weekend. Seems we’ve gotten into a weekend rain pattern with weekdays featuring immaculate fall weather conditions. Ah well, it happens. This weekend doesn’t look too crazy
Discussion: We have another “trough meeting remnant tropical cyclone” situation this weekend for the E US however most action of interest will be for the Gulf of Maine and SE Canada. Post-Tropical Cyclone Phillippe is currently near Bermuda and is
Discussion: This week, we have a solid transition from warmer to cooler conditions. The 250mb jet and 500mb height analysis indicates a well-defined ridge giving way to a deep trough. The ridge will dominate much of today through Friday with
Discussion: The Inverted Trough (IVT) has done it’s thing and targeted NYC and surrounding areas (including NENJ/ECNJ) with the heaviest rainfall of the system. I’m seeing some pretty intense flash flooding imagery and videos coming out of NYC. Low pressure
Forecast Discussion: The system that began impacting New Jersey on Friday night (Sept 22) has finally cleared out (as of last night – Tuesday night). A very prolonged event originally initiated by tropical storm remnants and ultimately sustained as a
Storm Synopsis: Last week, a tropical disturbance formed a few hundred miles E of Florida. The upper low associated with the disturbance formed due south of an upper-level ridge centered over SE Canada. The ridge extended higher geopotential heights southward
Discussion: Today (Friday), I have a better idea about how this weekend should play out. With that said, the weekend outlook will be in article format today since we have an active system affecting the area through at least Monday.
Discussion: Not much has changed from a few days ago in the weekly outlook. This weekend continues to look suboptimal for outdoor plans, especially coastal areas S and E of the turnpike. Let’s break it down: A tropical disturbance is
Discussion: Nothing that interesting in the upper levels. Just a handoff of slightly higher and lower heights in mostly a zonal setup. The upper jet should become more meridional as we closer approach the weekend. At the lower levels, an
Discussion: The only disturbance I see in the upper levels is for the Sunday night into Monday period when a strong upper-jet streak will be over NJ in correlation with a small dissolving positive-axis trough. There should be a correlating
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