Discussion: First, let’s level some expectations. The snow potential for tomorrow (Thursday) into Friday is not a big deal. Given the time of year and surface temperature profile, it will be hard for significant accumulations to stack up outside of
Discussion: I’m not deducing much looking at upper-jet (250mb) winds. Slight deviations in either direction but no buckling. 500mb geopotential height anomalies paint a much better picture. I can see the existing ridge eroding by Wednesday to make way for
Discussion: This past Sunday, I began discussing a synoptic storm signal for premium Kaboom Club members. Now that it’s gaining traction, we can discuss it a little more in-detail. Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first which
Discussion: The upper jet will dip and flatten out into more of a zonal flow this weekend. Geopotential heights, analyzed at 500mb, will correlate with this with a reduction in positive anomalies to near-average. Far from a deep cold trough
Discussion: This week’s weather will continue to fall victim to a persistent ridging pattern. The current ridge is starting to depart which will put NJ under a warmer SW flow for Tues-Wed. On Thursday, the current ridge will handoff to
Discussion: The drought continues to worsen. We’ve had no synoptic rain systems (tropical remnants, nor’easter, coastal low, etc.) and almost every frontal passage (warm or cold) has been mostly dry through NJ. The cold front moving through today (Friday) started
Discussion: The rainfall situation remains dire. The front-side of high pressure gave many locations their first freeze overnight (Sunday night into Monday morning). NJ conditions will now moderate to above-average temperatures as the high sits overhead today (Monday) and moves
Discussion: An anomalous ridge over the NorthEast/Mid-Atlantic US is to blame for the current warm weather. Yes, it’s nice but out of place IMO. The more important story is the lack of rainfall pushing parts of NJ into a moderate/severe
Discussion: The trough has moved out and now the E US will be under the influence of a ridge this weekend into mid next week. This means above-average temperatures and continued dry conditions. The drought monitors are really starting to
Discussion: After our warmer weekend, we’re in for a transitional week. Those who saw 80s on Sunday afternoon could very well see 30s later this week overnight. A large positive-tilted trough is establishing across the E US as a ridge
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