Discussion: Model guidance and live observations continue to tighten on the approaching coastal storm. The upper-levels continue the theme of an E US trough fed by the remnant energy from Willa. The surface solution has been bouncing around but the low’s
Discussion: Willa’s remnant upper-level energy will ultimately develop into an upper-level low over the E US this weekend. This trough will be fed an upper-level shortwave from the pacific jet that will be responsible for driving our early weekend storm system
Discussion: The Oct 27-31 synoptic storm signal that I’ve been tracking since ~Oct 10 will likely come into fruition this weekend. The source? Hurricane Willa in the Pacific Ocean. Willa is currently located S of the Baja Peninsula and just
Discussion: A quick note about tonight (Sunday night). High pressure is set up just to our W providing N flow. The flow should subside heading into overnight hours. The combination of lighter winds and clear skies could allow for radiational
Discussion: This weekend is fairly straight-forward. High pressure dominated today and tomorrow with dry typical fall conditions. As the high drifts into the Atlantic Ocean, it’s back-side return flow will bring milder temps for Friday-Saturday. A little bit of rain moves
Discussion: A W US ridge pattern should continue this week with several deep but progressive troughs passing through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This should anchor a cut-off low over the SW US. At the surface this means more shots
Discussion: Thursday’s overnight rain, wind and thunderstorms associated with Michael’s remnants should move out by late-morning Friday. The associated energy should absorb into the upper jet and continue eastward with the mid-latitude westerlies. In the upper levels the jet stream
After delivering catastrophic damage to the Florida panhandle and many other instances of secondary damage to parts of the SE US, Michael’s remnants have weakened to tropical storm criteria. The energy should track from its current ~interior South Carolina location
Michael is a category 3 major hurricane heading N towards the coastline between Rosemary Beach and Mexico Beach in Florida. That would put the center of the cone in the Laguna Beach/Panama City area. This is likely where the most destructive
Discussion: Upper-level ridging should be strong through Thursday morning which should reinforce the warm and muggy feel this week at the surface via S flow. The ridge should then break down and move out to sea as lower height anomalies
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