Discussion: While the overall Polar and Pacific weather patterns, including key teleconnections and oscillations, remain generally unfavorable for winter weather in New Jersey, we do have a few thread the needle events to watch this week. We’re basically going to
Discussion: In the upper-levels, anomalous ridging should dominate the pattern for the next 10 days. In some cases the ridging retrogrades W enough to pull some troughing down from SE Canada over our area. At the surface this means a
Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong
Discussion: I really wanted to have some sort of closure on whether or not the weekend system is a go or not. I thought for sure the flight recon and proper land sampling would push the needle one way or
Discussion: We’re likely beyond the point of if there’s going to be a synoptic storm off the east coast this weekend. The signal has been well-advertised on long-range model guidance with consistency. A Miller-A low should form in the Gulf
Discussion: Most are focused on this weekend’s winter storm potential. Let’s get the week ahead out of the way first. Upper-level height anomalies should remain negative through most of this week. This indicates colder air aloft with general flow out
Discussion: Our Upper-Level Low (ULL) is currently centered over S Missouri and should track just to our NW (over the SE Great Lakes) between now and Sunday night. The primary surface low will remain stacked under the ULL over the
Discussion: Conditions should remain tranquil and milder for Friday. An Upper-Level Low (ULL) will then barrel across the NE US this weekend tracking near the Appalachian Mountain range. A surface low will correlate and wobble through somewhere near/over NJ on
Discussion: The strong area of high pressure responsible for the cold this week will ultimately be responsible for the moderation in temperature between Thursday and Saturday night. The front side of the high’s anti-cyclonic flow brought cold from the N
Discussion: My family is feeling much better as we’re almost fully-recovered from the flu. Thanks again for the well-wishes from everyone. You are all amazing! Tonight temperatures will drop well-below freezing statewide. Breezy-to-gusty NW winds should gradually subside by daybreak
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